Moderna reported more than just a clinical trial that was effective. Wall Street nearly tripled its value in a single session when it became the first business to deliver a favorable Phase 3 result for a customized mRNA cancer treatment. Merck rose 12.6% to a record $152.20, while Moderna’s stock ended August 19 at $174.38, up 176.97%.
The final results raise even more questions about valuation, even while the scientific milestone is legitimate. Although analysts predict that the original melanoma possibility might only produce $1.4 billion to $2.5 billion in annual sales, the two businesses contributed over $86 billion in combined market value.
Let’s examine why Moderna’s stock almost tripled, what the cancer trial truly shown, why Merck also hit a record high, and how much both stocks already indicate potential success.
Why Did Moderna Stock Soar 177%?
Together with Merck’s Keytruda, Moderna and Merck reported positive topline findings from INTerpath-001, a Phase 3 trial evaluating their customized mRNA cancer treatment, intismeran autogene.
Two significant objectives were accomplished by the combination:
- It increased recurrence-free survival, which meant that patients lived longer without dying or having their melanoma return.
- It increased distant metastasis-free survival, which meant that patients lived longer without dying or the cancer spreading to another area of their body.
When compared to Keytruda alone, both benefits were deemed clinically meaningful and statistically significant. According to Moderna and Merck’s formal release, the trial likewise yielded no new safety signals.
On August 19, Moderna’s stock finished at $174.38, up $111.42 or 176.97%. It was the company’s highest closing price in almost three years and its biggest one-day percentage rise ever. Merck hit a new record high and finished at $152.20, up 12.6%.
| Company | Closing gain | Value before news | Value after close | Value added |
| Moderna | 176.97% | About $25 billion | About $69.6 billion | About $44 billion |
| Merck | 12.6% | About $334 billion | About $376 billion | About $42 billion |
| Combined | About $86 billion |
Moderna did more than just note the higher percentage change. Additionally, compared to Merck, it added somewhat higher absolute market value. As a result, Moderna’s more comprehensive personalized-mRNA platform—rather than only the melanoma indication—was highly valued by the market.
What Caused Moderna Stock to Rise Into the Close?
The surge was sparked by the clinical outcome, but it was further amplified by market positioning. Prior to the news, between 13.5% and 14% of Moderna’s publicly traded shares were held in short positions.
Demand for the stock increased as traders with bearish holdings hurried to close them as Moderna kept increasing. During the session, around 199 million Moderna shares were exchanged, compared to an average daily volume of about 6.9 million. That was over 29 times the average volume.
For bearish Moderna holdings, S3 Partners calculated that the 177% move resulted in one-day paper losses of over $5.5 billion. As a result, the outcome created two distinct forces: an exceptionally strong short squeeze and a true scientific revaluation.
The response extended beyond Merck and Moderna. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index increased by about 4.4%, while BioNTech had a rise of nearly 21.6%. This implies that rather than focusing on a single product, investors viewed the study as validation of the larger field of mRNA cancer treatment.
What Did the Merck and Moderna Cancer Trial Indicate?
1,137 patients with cutaneous melanoma in stages IIB, IIC, III, or IV were included in INTerpath-001. Each patient had not previously received systemic treatment and had undergone surgery to remove the visible malignancy entirely.
A 2:1 ratio was used to split the patients:
| Treatment group | Treatment received |
| Combination group | Intismeran every three weeks for up to nine doses, plus Keytruda every six weeks |
| Control group | Keytruda plus placebo |
| Maximum treatment period | Approximately 56 weeks |
The study was double-blind and randomized. This lowers the possibility that expectations affected the outcomes because neither patients nor researchers were aware of which patients received intismeran.
At a predetermined interim point, the analysis was carried out. In order to measure overall survival and other outcomes, the study will continue. ClinicalTrials.gov has complete trial details.
What Did the Merck and Moderna Cancer Trial Indicate?
1,137 patients with cutaneous melanoma in stages IIB, IIC, III, or IV were included in INTerpath-001. Each patient had not previously received systemic treatment and had undergone surgery to remove the visible malignancy entirely.
This Vaccine Is Not Typical for Prevention
It can be misleading to refer to intismeran as a “cancer vaccine.” It is not administered to healthy individuals in order to stop the development of melanoma.
It is a therapeutic vaccine intended for cancer survivors.
Atypical proteins produced by mutations within cancer cells are known as neoantigens. The immune system may target healthy cells since they often do not exhibit these particular proteins.
Consider intismeran as making a personalized wanted poster that depicts the appearance of the patient’s malignancy to the immune system. After then, Keytruda releases a brake that cancer employs to impair immune cells. While the other treatment aids immune cells in attacking the target, the first one detects it.
According to reports on Moderna’s production process, it presently takes about six weeks from sample collection to vaccine administration. One of the program’s largest commercial problems is still producing thousands of separate batches, each of which belongs to a single patient.
Why Does This Phase 3 Outcome Have Historical Significance?
Research on customized cancer vaccines has been ongoing for many years. Finding the correct tumor mutations was not the only challenge. Additionally, businesses had to rank possible targets, sequence the cancer, produce a medication tailored to each patient, and distribute it fast enough to have an impact.
According to the Phase 3 results, Moderna and Merck are able to carry out this complete process on a clinical trial scale.
This is the initial favorable Phase 3 outcome for:
- A customized neoantigen treatment
- A cancer therapy based on mRNA
- In adjuvant melanoma, a customized cancer vaccine tested against Keytruda
Because of this, the significance of this outcome extends well beyond melanoma. A disappointing trial might have undermined trust in the field of customized mRNA cancer as a whole. A successful outcome maintains the potential to use the same platform for several malignancies.
Nine Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials covering melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, bladder cancer, and kidney cancer are presently being conducted by Moderna and Merck.
However, a single successful melanoma experiment does not guaranty that the platform will function universally. Since melanoma frequently has many mutations, there are more potential targets for the vaccination. Different outcomes may be obtained from cancers with less detectable neoantigens.